All notes

August 26, 2026

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investing

not investment advice. for informational purposes only.

i spend a decent amount of time poking around public markets — usually 2–3 names at a time rather than anything resembling a diversified portfolio (probably not textbook best practice)

ideas are a mix of stuff i come up with myself and things i find elsewhere: value investors club, yellowbrick road, x, random corners of the internet, etc.

  • fair value at entry, so downside is at most a 20% drawdown
  • cash flow generative, or on the cusp of it
  • asymmetric upside, with a path to +50% in under a year
  • at least one 'why now' moment that changes business or industry outlook
  • generally consumer & tech
  • generally >$500m and <$5bn market cap, where there's less competition

  • industries i have little expertise in (pharma, o&g, financial services)
  • capex heavy businesses
  • speculative growth with no path to profitability
  • turnarounds that depend on a shift in management thinking
  • growth that's turning negative
  • sum-of-the-parts analyses
  • microcaps

  • celsius (CELH) — three brands growing mindshare, with upside in international markets & continued high growth from alani nu. the pepsi integration overhang is wearing off, and the multiple should close against monster given the growth profile

  • omada health (OMDA) — the street was significantly undercounting revenue growth & the path to ebitda profitability. beat and raised consecutive quarters, though i sold just shy of my price target on slowing mau & dau figures (full writeup)
  • centene (CNC) — oversold mid-2025, falling from $60 to $25 in a couple of weeks after withdrawing guidance and posting a higher-than-expected loss ratio. bought the dip, mainly on the view that most of that risk is repricable year-to-year for insurers
  • root insurance (ROOT) — two quarters of >25% premium growth, yet the street wasn't accounting for the change in profitability. $9 to $85 in under two months
  • amc (AMC) — roaring kitty tweeted for the first time in years, yet the stock was only up 5% at the open. 5% downside for asymmetric upside, given the previous gamestop saga ran >10x
  • pet iq (PETQ) — business model shift from distributor to branded manufacturing, which should have commanded a higher multiple & margin profile, yet the street didn't realize it. also highly cash flow generative while paying down debt. $16 to $31 and bought out by pe in under six months

  • xponential fitness (XPOF) — didn't spend enough time thinking through executional & management risk. the thesis leaned heavily on a turnaround bet with new management, which didn't execute in line with the plan
  • crocs (CROX) — thesis was around multiple expansion, which never came to fruition as the core us business slowed. good learning in hindsight not to bet on multiple expansion as the sole lever without a strong 'why now' catalyst